David Smith, Economics Editor with the Sunday Times has a well written article today dealing with how the reduction in interest rates amongst other factors will mean an increase in consumers' disposable income - which people will save rather than spend. (I have abridged the article slightly).
Wandering round Poundland, as one does, is a bit different from the rarefied atmosphere of Davos but is an experience to be recommended. In this Aladdin's cave, which has everything from the latest Rupert annual, six-packs of rare incandescent light bulbs and mini tool kits to household goods, toiletries and non-perishable foods, there is a sense of wonder that anybody can make this stuff for £1, let alone sell it.
The Poundland effect underlines how tough things are for higher-priced retailers, which is why it is expanding while many of them are shrinking. That, however, is not the only message. Just down the road is a 99p shop and, unless my eyes were deceiving me, it was busier. To economists, if not to Poundland, that is gratifying. It shows price signals work, even at low prices and that the fashionable "left digit effect" is alive and well.
This is the effect that makes us more likely to buy at £9.99 than £10. By the same token, 99p is more appealing than £1. I am tempted to open a 98p shop, though experts say that to make a real difference you might have to go to 89p, if not 49p. The real point is that one of the stories of 2009 will be that consumers can buy cheaply, if they choose to, and not just at the discounters. We are moving into a period where inflation will be negligible, and for periods negative, in spite of sterling's fall.
This, and what will be a very gloomy economic forecast, prompted the Bank to cut interest rates from 1.5% to 1%. As I wrote last week, I would not have done so at this time. But how strange it is that such low rates have become almost commonplace. Low rates are providing a bonus for borrowers, bringing big reductions in mortgage payments. More generally, low inflation — helped by the government's temporary Vat cut — will provide a boost to real income growth. Just how big was underlined by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in its latest review.
It predicts real household disposable income will jump 3.3% this year, well up on last year's increase of 1.5% and 2007's zero growth. If this is right, it will be the best year for income growth since 2001. We will not have had it so good for a long time. The question is: what will people do with it? Simon Kirby and Ray Barrell, economists at the institute, are pretty sure they will not spend it. Alongside that 3.3% rise in incomes they predict a 3.8% slump in consumer spending. Saving, not spending, will be the watchword this year, they say, with the saving ratio predicted to jump from 1.3% last year to 7.1% this year.
It is an interesting forecast and a brave one. Lots of unprecedented things are happening but that would be an unprecedented divergence between income growth and spending. Barrell points out that something similar happened in the early 1990s, but spread over three years. This time, he said, the effects were coming through much quicker, with falling housing wealth and lack of availability of credit being the two main factors pushing spending lower.
Surely, you will say, this recession is all about households deleveraging — paying off debt — and a sharp drop in consumer spending will be a natural consequence of that. But, as I have pointed out before, consumer spending has been rising at a slower rate in recent years and was, in any case, mainly financed out of income growth.
There will be a two-way debt battle in the coming months, rising unemployment making it hard for a minority to service their home loans, while lower interest rates will make it easier for the majority.
Where will this leave spending? Nationwide's consumer confidence index is at a record low, though the proportion of people saying now is a good time for a big purchase has risen again. That is important. Official figures show retail sales held up pretty well through to the end of last year, but that spending on big-ticket items was very weak. Ask any car dealer.
In the end, confidence is the key. Consumer recessions are not caused by people cutting back who have to. They happen when those who are not badly squeezed decide it is prudent not to spend. This is Keynes's paradox of thrift; we would like a higher level of savings but not right now.
It could go either way. But if the institute is right in its calculation of the rise in real incomes this year, I would be quite surprised if it is also right on spending.
No comments:
Post a Comment