Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Yet more unemployed

The latest unemployment figures from the Central Statistics Office show another record number of people signing on to the Live Register in November. 16,900 people signed up for unemployment payments or Social Welfare credits last month. This brings the total to 277,200 - the highest level since September 1996. In the year to November, the Live Register saw an unadjusted increase of 106,864 - a jump of 66.1% and the biggest 12-month increase since records began in 1967. The CSO says that the standardised unemployment rate in November rose to 7.8% from a rate of 7.4% in October. This was the highest rate since April 1998.

The latest figures confirm the worsening labour market trend of recent months. Apart from the sharp fall in construction employment, other sectors like manufacturing, retail, transport, and financial services are starting to show significant declines too. Ulster Bank's economist Lynsey Clemenger says that no sector will be immune from job losses, as the economy sinks further into recession next year.

On a technical note, the estimated unemployment rate in November was 7.8%. Note, however, that the Live Register does not measure unemployment, in itself. It includes part-time, seasonal and casual workers who are entitled to benefit. These people are not unemployed as long as they are in the labour force. The Live Register only helps provide an up-to-date guess, working from the official measure of unemployment in the the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS). The QNHS showed 143,500 officially unemployed in July against 226,000 on the Live Register at that time.

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